Escalating NATO-Russian Tensions Following Russian Drone Violations in Polish Airspace

Russian President Vladimir Putin Observes the Zapad 2025 Military Exercises, via The Kremlin.

Between September 9 – 10, Russian drones violated Polish airspace, testing U.S. deterrence and risking greater escalation by pulling the U.S. into a European conflict through the possible invocation of NATO’s Article V. After nineteen Russian drones violated Polish airspace, Poland shot them down and called for consultations with NATO member states through NATO’s Article IV. NATO subsequently deployed its Eastern Sentry reinforcement program for the first time—including a multitude of member-states contributing major military assets to NATO’s eastern flank.[1] From September 12 – 16, Russia conducted major military exercises (Zapad 2025 or ‘West 2025’) with Belarus, including displays of Russia’s nuclear capabilities—which have not been seen since Russia held similar exercises in 2021 that provided cover before its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.[2] These developments challenge the U.S.-dominated NATO alliance, testing its members' commitment to deter Russian aggression and willingness to implement the Alliance’s Article V—requiring all members to respond to an attack on one—if needed.[3] 

DISCLAIMER

This Strategic Intelligence assessment reflects the analytic judgments of the author, based on open-source information, and does not represent official positions or the views of Mooreposts.

NOTES

[1] NATO, “Statement by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on the violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones,” September 10, 2025, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_237559.htm. See also: "Eastern Sentry to enhance NATO's presence along its Eastern flank," SHAPE, news release, September 12, 2025, https://shape.nato.int/news-releases/eastern-sentry-to-enhance-natos-presence-along-its-eastern-flank#:~:text=Allies%20have%20already%20begun%20to,expressed%20its%20willingness%20to%20support, and  "How NATO Is Boosting Eastern Defenses Amid Russian Air Incursions," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, September 22, 2025, https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-eastern-sentry-russia-drones-poland/33536306.html. 

[2] Patrick Reevell, “Russia holds major war games in Belarus amid NATO tensions,” ABC News, September 15, 2025, https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-holds-major-war-games-belarus-amid-nato/story?id=125576856.

[3] Elis Gjevori, "Belarus, Russia conduct joint military drills amid NATO tensions," Al Jazeera, September 15, 2025, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/15/belarus-russia-conduct-joint-military-drills-amid-nato-tensions.

Lindsay Maizland and Clara Fong, "Russia Tests NATO with Poland Drone Breach," Council on Foreign Relations, September 10, 2025, https://www.cfr.org/article/russia-tests-nato-poland-drone-breach.