The Threat of Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Development Program

An Iranian S-200 surface-to-air missile system on display in Tehran, Iran on September 26, 2024, via Getty Images/Hossein Beris

The status of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear weapons program is the most pressing issue related to U.S. national security in the Middle East. Iran, an adversary responsible for anti-American rhetoric, proxy warfare against allies in the region, and the spread of authoritarianism, cannot develop weapons of mass destruction, for fears that they could be used against Americans, critical allies, or as a bargaining tool.[1] The U.S.’s technological advantage, particularly in weapons of mass destruction, acts not only as a deterrent for hostile Iranian moves in the region, but also as a leveraging tool for negotiation, sanctions and international pressure. The most recent reporting suggests that Iran’s remaining stockpile of 60% enriched uranium is weapons usable, and that remaining stockpile could be used to develop 6-7 Fat Man-style nuclear warheads.[2] Continued surveillance of nuclear enrichment and weapons facilities, as well as an investment in diplomacy to dissuade further development of such, better positions the U.S. for its sphere of influence.

DISCLAIMER

This Strategic Intelligence assessment reflects the analytic judgments of the author, based on open-source information, and does not represent official positions or the views of Mooreposts.

NOTES

[1] Hüseyin Faruk Şimşek, “Iran’s Proxy War Paradox: Strategic Gains, Control Issues, and Operational Constraints,” Small Wars & Insurgencies 36, no. 6 (2025): 997–1024, https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2025.2512807. 

[2] Edwin Lyman, “Iran Can Still Build Nuclear Weapons Without Further Enrichment—Only Diplomacy Will Stop It,” The Bulletin, July 2025, https://thebulletin.org/2025/07/iran-can-still-build-nuclear-weapons-without-further-enrichment-only-diplomacy-will-stop-it/.