Intelligence Question: What is the most likely target for a future Russian conventional assault against

NATO and why?

 

There is high confidence that the Suwałki Gap—a 60-mile corridor between Poland and Lithuania—presents the most likely target of a Russian conventional assault on NATO. Since early September, Russia has tested NATO preparedness and U.S. commitment to the Alliance in the Baltic region by intentionally violating Polish airspace with drones, Estonia’s airspace with fighter jets, and continuing its hybrid warfare tactics against critical NATO systems.[1] Moscow will almost certainly require until 2027 to replenish its ground forces at levels capable of conducting ground and missile attacks on NATO territories from Kaliningrad and Belarus.[2] Russian control of the gap would isolate NATO-members Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, which risks exposing NATO air and sea deployments to the Baltics, direct confrontation with Russia, and damage to NATO’s credibility and U.S. defense posture.[3] NATO would likely benefit from establishing deterrence by denial via permanent deployment of forces to the gap and hardening air defense systems and communications infrastructure in the Baltics.

 

[1] “Russian Jets Breach Estonian Airspace as Trump Administration Plans Baltic Security Cuts,” accessed 27

September 2025, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/09/22/russian-jets-breach-estonian-airspace-trumpadministration-Plans-baltic-security-cuts.html.

“Putin’s hybrid war against Europe continues to escalate,” accessed 27 September 2025,

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-hybrid-war-against-europe-continues-to-escalate/. 

[2] “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2025,” accessed 21 September 2025, https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-202025/#:~:text=ISW%20understandingwar,zones%20in%20the%20air%20domain.

“Frontline report: Russian troops could vanish into a forest and pop out inside NATO,” accessed 27 September

2025, https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/25/russia-suwalki-gap-nato-infiltration/.

“Pacing scenarios,” accessed 27 September 2025, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/ac-turkey-defensejournal/pacing-scenarios/. 

[3] “The Suwalki Corridor,” accessed 27 September 2025, https://cepa.org/article/the-suwalki-corridor/?utm_.

“The Suwałki Corridor Crisis: An Analysis of a Possible Russian Offensive and NATO Response Scenarios,”

accessed 27 September 2025, https://lansinginstitute.org/2025/05/27/the-suwalki-corridor-crisis-an-analysis-of-apossible-russian-offensive-and-nato-response-scenarios/?utm.