Sustaining Ukrainian Munitions

Illustration by Connor JL Moore

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The European Union Military Committee (EUMC) should advise EU leadership to implement a coordinated, multi-year EU-Ukraine production and sustainment framework for Ukrainian air defense and artillery ammunition, as Russia likely retains the capacity to continue its war of attrition, and diverting U.S. commitments risks enhancing critical capability gaps.

Strategic Context

Russia’s war in Ukraine has evolved into a protracted conflict of attrition in which industrial production, manpower replenishment, and external military assistance increasingly shape battlefield outcomes. Current assessments indicate that Moscow likely has the economic and military ability to sustain military operations for several more years, despite heavy losses and economic pressures. Russia continues to replenish its forces at sufficient rates while expanding its defense industrial production (e.g., weapons manufacturing, combat training, and battlefield innovation). This quick force adaptation has resulted in intense missile and drone campaigns against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and civilians. 

• Russia has fired over 700 missiles since the start of 2026 against Ukraine’s infrastructure. 

• As of late January, Ukraine’s electrical system could reportedly meet only ~60% of national demand.

• Russia’s drone production capacity is ~30,000 per year and could double in 2026.

Ukraine’s ability to resist this strategy remains heavily dependent on Western military assistance, particularly advanced air-defense systems and critical munitions. Western support has enabled Kyiv to maintain frontline operations and offset Moscow’s advantages in defense production and manpower. Although European states account for most assistance, the U.S. still supplies critical military assets dubbed ‘high-end enablers’ (e.g., High Mobility Artillery Rocket System [HIMARS], Patriot systems [PAC-3], and howitzer ammunition). 

• Ukraine’s annual interceptor demand is estimated at ~4,800. 

• These trends likely reinforce Moscow’s belief that prolonging the war will gradually erode Western support and Kyiv’s ability to sustain its defense.

Critical Analysis

Three factors threaten the sustainability of Ukraine’s defenses. 

(1) Europe’s current support structure continues to treat the war as a crisis-response aid instead of a prolonged war. Through ad hoc national initiatives, European states have transferred critical equipment from national stockpiles and launched numerous assistance programs, but these efforts have remained fragmented across national procurement systems and lack sustained coordination for long-term force deployment. As U.S. military aid is projected to decline—sharply by 2028—the EU’s current voluntary, ad hoc support framework is insufficient to the predictable, strategically coordinated, industrial-scale production needed to offset the loss of U.S. assistance. 

(2) This production gap is compounded by Europe and Ukraine’s structural reliance on U.S. systems. Ukraine’s U.S.-made munitions include 70% of long-range anti-aircraft systems, 86% of rocket artillery, and 82% of howitzer ammunition. While the European defense base has significantly ramped up production of ballistic missile defense interceptors, it has not kept pace with Moscow’s ballistic missile production. 

(3) The expanding U.S. conflict in Iran could further complicate this situation as the U.S. risks depleting its stockpiles (i.e., PAC-3 systems). Over the four years of war in Ukraine, Kyiv has received ~600 PAC-3s for its air defense, whereas the U.S. used 800 in just the first five days of its war with Iran. Although the U.S. aims to scale up PAC-3 production to 2,000 per year, this increase is likely too late to adequately support Ukrainian air defenses in 2026, forcing Kyiv to make difficult decisions about what to protect.

Recommendations

(1) The EUMC should advise the Political and Security Committee to establish a coordinated multi-year European munitions sustainment framework focused on expanding production of air defense systems, artillery ammunition, and other high-demand munitions required for prolonged industrial warfare. The conflict has demonstrated the necessity for sustained production capacity and reliable supply chains. Coordinated European procurement and long-term contracts would meet the demand required for Europe's defense industry to further ramp up production and reduce reliance on depleting U.S. stockpiles. 

(2) Coinciding with the European framework, the EUMC should direct the EU Military Staff to establish a standing, integrated EU-Ukraine force-and-industry partnership. Ukraine’s wartime innovation has rapidly expanded domestic capabilities in drones, electronic warfare systems, and other battlefield technologies. Integrating these networks would increase output and procurement efficiency for Ukraine while also bolstering Europe’s long-term deterrence posture.

Connor JL Moore is a current master’s candidate for International Security at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs. 

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