U.S. Likely to Expand Strikes into Venezuela

USS Gravely (DDG-107) launches a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile in response to increased Iranian-backed Houthi activity in the Red Sea on Jan. 11, 2024. (U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Jonathan Word / DVIDS, Public Domain).

Key Takeaway

The United States will likely expand its armed conflict with Venezuela by striking land-based targets.

Public Framing

Beginning his second term in January, President Trump signed an executive order legally authorizing the designation of international drug cartels as terrorist organizations and national security threats. On 2 September, the U.S. began a series of missile attacks aimed at boats departing Venezuela that the Trump Administration claimed were engaged in drug trafficking. On 2 October, President Trump framed the attacks as a “non-international armed conflict” with “narco-terrorists” in defense of the U.S. homeland.

In his Thanksgiving message, President Trump publicly stated that operations to strike land-based targets would begin “very soon” and has consistently stated this intention around 17 times. He further warned that Venezuelan airspace should be considered closed.

Indistinguishable Targets

By November, the U.S. State Department labeled the Cartel de los Soles as a designated terrorist organization, alleging that it is led by Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro. However, the “Cartel de los Soles”, a decades-old nickname used to describe corrupt government officials involved in the drug trade, does not formally exist. With Venezuelan leadership specified as a terror group, the Trump administration claims the legal military authority to act against any labeled narco-terrorists in connection to the Maduro-led Venezuelan government. 

It is unknown what the legal difference between labeled members of “Cartel de los Soles” and the Venezuelan Armed Forces is and that further blurs the rules of engagement against targets. 

Further U.S. efforts have included: federal warrants authorizing 10 December’s seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker ship carrying 1.1 million barrels of oil and placing a U.S. bounty on Maduro for 50 million USD. By 17 December, roughly 26 total missile strikes on alleged drug-smuggling boats had killed around 100 people.

Increasing U.S. Military Capability

The U.S. response has been Operation Southern Spear, which has expanded the U.S. military footprint around Venezuela, from a force of about 6,000 to now 15,000 personnel. This operation has included deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, a Marine Expeditionary Unit, and guided-missile destroyers.

Additional reporting from 10 December, confirmed six Navy EA-18G Growlers have been forward-stationed in Puerto Rico. These aircraft specialize in disrupting enemy radar and missile guidance of air-defense systems, a capability outside the scope of striking small boats. This indicates growing U.S. potential to disrupt a layered, Russian-supplied, air defense system and potentially strike ground targets in Venezuela.

Assessment

The consistent public framing for military intervention, the indistinguishability of military and non-military targets, and the increasing U.S. military capability indicate the U.S. is likely to expand strikes against land-based targets within Venezuela.

DISCLAIMER

This Strategic Intelligence assessment reflects the analytic judgments of the author, based on open-source information, and does not represent official positions or the views of Mooreposts.