Operation Epic Fury’s Costs and Likely Trajectory

USS Pinckney (DDG-91) conducts flight operations during Operation Epic Fury, March 18, 2026 (DVIDS).

An MH-60S delivers cargo to the flight deck of USS Gerald R. Ford March 9, 2026 (DVIDS).

U.S. Sailors conduct a foreign object and debris walkdown aboard USS Pinckney, 3.18.26 (DVIDS).

Photos via the United States Navy

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Key Takeaway

The US’s increased commitment to Operation Epic Fury is highly likely to continue costing American lives and material.

U.S. Costs

On February 28th, US Central Command (CENTCOM) initiated Operation Epic Fury. Per the White House, the operation makes up part of a "precise, overwhelming military campaign" to dismantle Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles and naval capabilities.

By March 2nd, 7 US service members had been killed from Iranian counterattacks that struck US bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Those lost include: 

• Sgt. 1^st Class Nicole M. Amor

• Spc. Declan J. Coady

• Capt. Cody A. Khork

• Chief Warrant Officer Robert Marzan

• Maj. Jeffrey O'Brien

• Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington

• Sgt. 1^st Class Noah L. Tietjens

By March 23rd, the operation had cost the US 15 aircraft: 11 Reaper Drones, 3 F-15s, and 1 KC-135.

• The MK-9 Reapers were shot down by missiles and ground-based arms fire.

• Friendly Kuwaiti air defenses mistakenly shot down three F-15s.

On March 13th, CENTCOM confirmed the loss of a KC-135, a refueling aircraft, in western Iraq due to a non-combat incident, killing all 6 crew members:

• Maj. John A. Klinner

• Capt. Ariana G. Savino

• Tech. Sgt. Ashley B. Pruitt

• Capt. Seth R. Koval

• Capt. Curtis J. Angst

• Tech. Sgt. Tyler H. Simmons

In all, 13 US service members have died. 232 US service members have been wounded, including 10 seriously wounded.

US Aircraft Carriers 

Three US Aircraft Carriers are involved in the current operation at different levels.

The USS Abraham Lincoln, located 500 miles south of Iran in the Indian Ocean, continues to provide aerial support for the operation.

On March 12th, after nearly 10 months into its Mediterranean Sea deployment, a maintenance-related fire forced the USS Gerald R. Ford (USSGRF) to withdraw to Greece for repairs.

• The fire took 30 hours to extinguish, injured 3 sailors, and exposed 200 to smoke inhalation.

On March 5th, the USS George H.W. Bush completed training to enable deployment to the Middle East, most likely to replace the exhausted USSGRF, which could signal operational longevity.

Invasion Potential

Additional ground forces are currently moving to the Iranian area of operation.

The 31st and 11th Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU) are continuously deployed units stationed on ships that are fully capable of conducting ground combat, aviation, and logistical operations.

The Pentagon has also ordered 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.

Diplomatic Disengagement

The current state of US-Iranian diplomacy remains nonconstructive and elusive.

• On March 24th, President Trump said that there is a “very good chance” that the Iranians would like to “make a deal.”

• Pakistan has emerged as a peace broker, sharing the US’s 15-point plan with Tehran.

• Iran has dismissed this plan and offered a 5-point counter-proposal.

Assessment

The deployment of additional ground forces, the USS George H.W. Bush, and ongoing diplomatic disengagement all signal a strong likelihood that America’s War with Iran will continue into the foreseeable future, risking greater costs for America.

DISCLAIMER

This assessment reflects the judgments of the author, based on open-source information, and does not represent official positions or the views of Mooreposts.